In a period marked by concerns about integrity in professional sports, prediction markets in the United States are going through a decisive week. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed lawsuits against three states and moved forward in talks with the NFL to establish clear limits on operations susceptible to manipulation.
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The NFL joins the leagues collaborating with the CFTC
Earlier this week, the NFL joined the list of sports leagues working alongside the CFTC to establish safeguards in prediction markets. In a letter sent to the regulator on March 29, the league urged major operators to avoid including on their platforms contracts that it described as inherently objectionable, including those related to officiating, player injuries, and other operations susceptible to manipulation.
The NFL’s positioning is not new, but it has evolved. Last November, the league sent a memo to all 32 club owners informing them that it had begun working with state regulators to limit and potentially ban prop bets in the sport. Weeks later, Jeff Miller, NFL executive vice president, testified before Congress that the league had no plans to participate in prediction markets, citing among his reasons the potential impact on the integrity of sporting events.
However, Miller changed his stance earlier this year when other leagues began exploring commercial deals with operators in the sector. Days before the Super Bowl in February, he described contracts for sporting events as innovative, although he acknowledged uncertainty regarding the applicable regulatory framework.
Injury-linked contracts in the CFTC’s crosshairs
According to Miller, the NFL has held talks for months with the CFTC to identify contracts considered objectionable. The agency’s chairman, Michael Selig, confirmed that contracts related to player injuries will likely be banned. The agency, he explained, focuses on high-risk contracts where a player could obtain financial benefits for injuring an opponent.
«The CFTC takes its responsibility to reject prediction market contracts that are easily manipulated very seriously, and we are working with professional sports leagues to ensure this is done correctly,» Selig stated in remarks reported by ESPN.
The most cited precedent in this debate is the New Orleans Saints scandal: in 2012, the NFL suspended coach Sean Payton for the entire season after determining that the team had created a fund to pay players in exchange for injuring certain opponents. Nearly 30 players participated in that scheme, according to the league itself.
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The tribal battle against prediction markets reaches the IGA
Days before the Final Four, a group of tribal leaders took their campaign against prediction markets to the 2026 Indian Gaming Association (IGA) Tradeshow & Convention, held in San Diego. The conference, the most important in the country’s tribal sector, took place amidst growing pressure from tribal operators demanding a total ban on sporting event contracts.
The event’s opening on March 30 included four sessions dedicated exclusively to the topic. Victor Rocha, the conference chairman, designed that block to alert tribes to what he described as an existential threat to tribal gaming. The day closed with a panel titled «Prediction Markets: Building the Coalition for the Fight Ahead,» featuring David Bean, IGA chairman, and James Siva, chairman of the California Nations Indian Gaming Association.
Bean acknowledged that Kalshi won legal victories last year but maintained that the landscape began to change when several courts examined issues linked to the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act.
The CFTC sues Illinois, Arizona, and Connecticut
The IGA conference closed on April 2, the same day the CFTC filed lawsuits against three states: Illinois, Arizona, and Connecticut. The federal agency seeks to challenge the actions these states have taken against Designated Contract Markets (DCMs) registered with the CFTC, arguing that the agency has exclusive jurisdiction to regulate them under the Commodity Exchange Act.
Although more than a dozen states have filed lawsuits against Kalshi over the past year, these are the first legal actions initiated by the CFTC to prevent state gambling regulators from overseeing prediction market operators.
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