Hong Kong has decided to halt the launch of legal basketball betting, a measure that was scheduled for September and was part of a broader strategy to reduce the illegal market. The decision does not reflect a policy shift towards prohibition, but rather a reassessment of the global gaming environment, marked by the rapid growth of prediction markets and platforms based on blockchain technology.
Read more Tax reform in Brazil impacts the tax burden on sports betting
In this context, the government has opted for a regulatory pause aimed at analyzing the impact of these new models before granting formal licenses.
The suspension of basketball betting in Hong Kong
The proposal to legalize basketball betting had previously been approved through a legislative amendment in September, with the goal of channeling a significant portion of clandestine activity into a regulated framework.
In 2023, the illegal betting market in the region is estimated to have generated around 4.3 billion US dollars, prompting the government to consider regulation as a tool for control and oversight.
Prediction markets and the impact of Kalshi and Polymarket
One of the main factors behind the decision is the growth of prediction markets, platforms that allow betting on future events, from sports results to financial movements or geopolitical events.
Operators like Kalshi and Polymarket have gained global relevance, sparking a debate on whether their contracts should be considered financial instruments or traditional forms of betting.
The problem for regulators such as those in Hong Kong lies in the legal gray area in which these platforms operate. Their decentralized structure and connection to digital assets make it difficult to classify them within existing gaming regulatory frameworks.
Accelerated growth and institutional concern
The rise of these markets has been especially rapid in 2025, with an estimated transaction volume reaching 64 billion US dollars, representing a 200% increase compared to the previous year.
This growth has raised alarms in multiple jurisdictions, including Hong Kong, where regulators fear that the introduction of regulated sports betting could be distorted by the parallel expansion of these alternative markets.
Read more Netherlands promotes new projects to reduce the harms of online gambling among its citizens
Authorities consider that, without deeper analysis, the coexistence of both models could create legal gaps or even encourage illegal activities under new technological structures.
The role of Beijing and gaming oversight
Another key element in the decision is the political context. Hong Kong, as a special administrative region of China, maintains a delicate regulatory balance with the central government.
Under Xi Jinping’s presidency, Beijing has strengthened its stance against cross-border gaming, associating it with risks of money laundering and financial crimes.
The Hong Kong Jockey Club and project uncertainty
The basketball betting project was planned to be operated by the Hong Kong Jockey Club, one of the most important institutions in the sector in the region.
However, the delay took even some of its members by surprise, who were not informed until the last moment. This lack of clarity has raised doubts about the project’s future timeline and whether legalization will materialize in the short term.
An open regulatory future
For now, the Hong Kong government has not set a new date for the possible implementation of basketball betting. The pause decision reflects a cautious approach to the transformation of the global gaming ecosystem, where the boundaries between traditional betting, financial instruments, and blockchain technology are becoming increasingly blurred.
The outcome will depend on how prediction markets evolve and whether regulators manage to establish legal frameworks capable of integrating these new dynamics without losing control over the market.
Read more Thailand arrests Pei Min Si, alleged head of an illegal online gambling network
