The Netherlands designed a gradual increase in the online gambling tax with a clear objective: to increase structural tax revenues from the regulated sector. The rate went from 30.5% to 34.2% in 2025 and is scheduled to climb to 37.8% in 2026. However, the first results of the new tax scheme show that the effect has been the opposite of what authorities expected.
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According to an industry analysis published by VNLOK, the trade body representing licensed operators in the Netherlands, 43.5 million euros less in online gambling taxes were collected in 2025 compared to the previous year. The Dutch regulator KSA itself agrees with this diagnosis and anticipates a drop in tax revenue of around 40 million euros year over year.
The Netherlands: Why the tax goes up and less is collected
The logic behind the phenomenon is straightforward: when the tax pressure on licensed operators becomes too high, a growing portion of players migrates to unlicensed platforms that offer better conditions. These illegal operators do not pay Dutch taxes or comply with national consumer protection rules.
According to a KSA study cited by the sector, online gambling activity on unlicensed foreign sites surpassed gambling on authorized platforms during the first half of 2025. This data is especially significant because it confirms that the illegal market is no longer marginal, but competes on equal terms with the regulated one, and even surpasses it in certain periods.
«Financially reckless»: VNLOK’s accusation against the government
Björn Fuchs, chairman of VNLOK, did not choose mild words to describe the situation. «The government is trying to generate additional revenue with this measure, but it is achieving the opposite,» he stated. «We are seeing lower tax revenues, more illegal offers, and less money for sports and charities. This is not only financially reckless, but it also undermines player protection policy. The player is the victim of this policy».
VNLOK’s warning comes at a key moment: a parliamentary committee debate on gambling taxes is scheduled for March 11, making this analysis a direct input for the legislative discussion.
The impact on Dutch sports
The consequences of the tax policy are not limited to revenue collection. According to industry estimates, every one percentage point increase in the gambling tax reduces contributions to Dutch sports by around $2.7 million. The Dutch Olympic Committee estimates that the current cycle of increases will cost the national sports sector between $13.6 and $16.3 million, a figure that illustrates the extent of the indirect consequences of a tax policy designed without considering actual market behavior.
What operators are asking Parliament
VNLOK is not acting alone in this claim. The association joined VAN Kansspelen, the Dutch Lottery, and Holland Casino in a joint request to lawmakers: that the government present a formal evaluation of the changes in gambling taxes before the second quarter of 2026, and that the results of that evaluation be incorporated into future tax policy decisions.
The sector’s position is that it is not a matter of resistance to paying taxes, but a technical warning about the unintended effects of a poorly calibrated policy. In the words of VNLOK, taxing the regulated market more heavily while the illegal one operates without restrictions is equivalent to penalizing those who follow the rules and rewarding those who evade them.
A lesson replicated across Europe
The Dutch case is not isolated. Industry groups point out that the trend of consumers migrating to unlicensed operators in the face of increased tax pressure is accelerating across Europe. The Dutch experience provides concrete evidence of this pattern: when the gap between regulated and illegal gambling widens in terms of price or accessibility, the black market systematically gains ground.
For the continent’s regulators, the dilemma is increasingly visible: excessive taxation can destroy the very market it seeks to regulate, leaving players unprotected and the State without revenue.
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