The Securities and Exchange Commission of Brazil (CVM) approved the first products of the Brazilian prediction market, which the B3 stock exchange plans to launch in the first quarter of 2026. In a first stage, participation will be restricted to professional investors with high financial assets, exceeding 2.2 million dollars.
Read more Paraguay advances in responsible gaming and sets a revenue record
The initial products will be binary options on the dollar, the Ibovespa stock index, and bitcoin. The mechanism is simple: the investor answers yes or no to a future scenario. For example, they can bet on whether the dollar will fall below 5 reais on a specific date, or if the Ibovespa will exceed a certain level in May.
“The world of derivatives is getting closer and closer to the frontier of the prediction market,” explained Gilson Finkelsztain, president of B3, in statements reported by the Valor Econômico newspaper.
How prediction market contracts work
The model is relatively simple. If an investor bets 8.80 dollars that the Ibovespa will reach a certain level in March, and another bets 13.20 dollars that it will not, whoever is right takes the total 22 dollars of the contract. That is, the opposing positions of the bettors offset each other.
Luiz Masagão, vice president of products and clients at B3, points out that the exchange already operates similar products, such as the option on the Selic rate of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), where the investor bets on a decrease, an increase, or the maintenance of the interest rate. “There is an audience looking for this simplicity. It is a gateway for them to evolve in their investments,” says Masagão.
Brazil, a market with billion-dollar potential
Globally, the prediction market is already a consolidated phenomenon. According to the research firm Eilers & Krejcik, it could reach an annual volume of one trillion dollars worldwide. In the United States, platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi lead the segment and experienced accelerated growth during the 2024 presidential elections. ICE, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, has already invested in Polymarket, revealing institutional interest in these types of markets.
In Brazil, the cultural ground is also fertile: in the first half of 2025, around 17.7 million Brazilians placed sports bets, according to the Ministry of Finance. Platforms such as Prévias and Palpitada already operate in the country, and in March, the start of operations for Futuriza is planned, which will act both in the direct-to-consumer model and in services for companies and institutions.
Read more Macao breaks its all-time single-day visitor record during the Lunar New Year
The regulatory knot in Brazil
The main obstacle to the development of the sector is legal uncertainty. In Brazil, there is no specific regulatory framework for prediction markets, and it is still not clear which body supervises them: the CVM, the Central Bank, or the Ministry of Finance through the Secretariat of Prizes and Bets.
Claudia Yoshinaga, coordinator of the Center for Financial Studies at FGV EAESP, points out that every new financial product raises equivalent regulatory questions, as happened with cryptocurrencies and sports betting. The central question is whether these contracts are considered financial instruments or bets.
Lawyers in the sector warn about the risks of this vacuum. Paulo Brancher, a partner at the Mattos Filho law firm, maintains that “innovation alone cannot eliminate the safeguards involved in this type of activity.” Eduardo Carvalhaes, from the Lefosse law firm, goes further: “If there is a regulatory vacuum, the service will continue to be provided, and it will remain outside the scope of regulation.”
Carvalhaes believes that there should not be a single regulator, but rather coordination between several bodies, with minimum requirements to operate, such as presence in the country and demonstrable financial solvency.
2026, the year of the test
With the World Cup and national elections on the horizon, Lissa Workman, a partner at Mattos Filho specializing in technology, warns that the prediction market arrives at a time of maximum growth potential, but also maximum exposure to regulatory risks. The definition of the rules of the game will determine whether Brazil manages to organize this market or if it grows in informality.
Read more iGaming consolidates its leadership in the New Jersey market
