The Macau gaming market faces March 2026 with a tailwind. After a January that surprised with a 24% year-on-year increase in gross gaming revenue (GGR) and a February that exceeded analyst expectations with 4.5% growth, major Wall Street firms agree that the Chinese New Year momentum did not run out with the close of last month. Seaport Research Partners and JP Morgan project that March revenue will grow between 10% and 13% compared to the same month in 2025, which could place the full first quarter at an expansion of between 13% and 14%.
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An unprecedented start to the year since 2019
The first two months of 2026 were the best in relative terms since before the pandemic. Macau’s casinos collectively generated MOP$ 43,260 million (approximately 5,380 million dollars) in the first two months of the year, representing a 13.9% increase compared to the same period in 2025. However, the industry has yet to recover to pre-pandemic levels: in the first two months of 2019, the accumulated GGR was MOP$ 50,310 million (6,260 million dollars), so the current figure is still 14% below that threshold.
The February result was especially relevant because it exceeded market forecasts, which expected modest year-on-year growth of 1%. Gross gaming revenue in February reached MOP$ 20,620 million (approximately 2,560 million dollars), representing 81.3% of the revenue levels recorded in the same month of 2019.
The flow of visitors during the Chinese New Year holiday period was a determining factor. More than 1.55 million visitors arrived in Macau during the nine days of celebration, with a daily average of 173,000 arrivals that exceeded 2019 levels. Travelers from the mainland represented 1.21 million of the total. On February 19, the third day of the Lunar New Year, single-day arrivals exceeded 228,000 people, setting a new historical record.
Why the CNY momentum extends into March
The calendar was a key factor this year. The official Chinese government holiday period extended from February 15 to 23, later than usual, which shifted part of the high-end gambler flow into the first weeks of March. According to Vitaly Umansky, senior analyst at Seaport Research Partners, some high rollers chose to stay away from Macau during the festivities themselves, creating deferred demand that is expected to materialize in the current month.
JP Morgan: more than 10% in March and first quarter at highs
JP Morgan shares the optimism, although with a slightly more conservative estimate. The bank anticipates growth of over 10% for March, assuming a daily GGR of approximately 87.4 million dollars (MOP$ 700 million). On that basis, it projects that the total GGR for the first quarter of 2026 will grow between 13% and 14% year-on-year.
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The bank also offered a breakdown by segment of the cumulative performance for January and February: VIP gaming recorded growth of between 28% and 30%, while the mass and slots segment advanced between 11% and 12%. The strength of the high-end segment is a data point that reinforces expectations for March, given that this profile of gambler was precisely the one who postponed their visit during the festive period.
Risk factors: the National People’s Congress on the radar
Not the entire outlook is favorable. Umansky warned that the session of the National People’s Congress of China (NPC), held between March 5 and 11, could act as a temporary brake for the high-end gaming segment. Historically, some VIP gamblers reduce their activity during political events of this nature, which could moderate revenue in the first half of the month before demand normalizes.
Positive signs for the second quarter and the rest of the year
Beyond March, JP Morgan identifies several structural factors pointing in a positive direction for the coming months: a favorable shift in the composition between the mass and slots segment, a stabilizing effect on operating expenses derived from fewer non-gaming events, and levels of promotion and competition that remain relatively stable among market operators.
The long-term consensus is also constructive. The Macau government projects that casinos will generate MOP$ 236,000 million (29,400 million dollars) in GGR during 2026, 3.5% more than the revised forecast for 2025. UBS, for its part, estimates that the sector’s GGR and EBITDA will grow by 6% and 7% respectively in 2026, with a stronger start to the year that will moderate toward 4% in the second half. Seaport Research Partners and Jefferies also maintain favorable outlooks, with annual growth estimates of between 6% and 7%.
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