The gaming market in Macao is going through a striking paradox in 2026: while analysts project sustained revenue growth, the shares of companies in the sector are accumulating significant losses in the stock markets. According to the latest report from CBRE Equity Research, titles listed in the United States have fallen an average of 14% since January, and those listed in Hong Kong record a drop of 10%.
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John DeCree and Max Marsh, CBRE analysts, attribute this disconnect to the lack of investor confidence in the sustainability of growth and concern about margins, in an environment marked by rising operating expenses and increasingly intense competition among concessionaires.
CBRE raises its EBITDA estimates for the first quarter and the full year
Despite the stock market performance, CBRE’s investment analysis division has updated its earnings models upwards. The firm anticipates higher EBITDA estimates for both the first quarter of 2026 and the full fiscal year, supported by solid gross gaming revenue (GGR) data recorded in the first months of the year.
In concrete terms, CBRE expects Macao’s GGR to grow by 8.3% in fiscal year 2026, a figure that far exceeds the market consensus, which places that expansion at around 6%. The firm’s analysts point out that, for the year to close in line with that more conservative consensus, growth would have to slow down to 3.5% during the rest of the year, a scenario they consider unlikely.
Mainland China: the engine behind Macao’s growth
CBRE’s optimism rests, to a large extent, on China’s economic policy. The Beijing government aims for GDP growth of between 4.5% and 5.0% for this year, and the firm expects Macao’s GGR to advance at a faster pace than the general economy, favored by specific stimulus packages aimed at the Chinese consumer.
This mass segment, which has not yet completed its post-pandemic recovery, represents one of the main growth levers for the market in the medium term.
The direct VIP segment gains momentum: commission income on the rise
One of the most relevant data points in the report points to the dynamism of the direct VIP segment. In the fourth quarter of 2025, commission income across the Macao market grew by 21% year-on-year, representing 19.2% of total GGR. This figure reflects the rise of this premium segment, which has gained prominence as the traditional junket model recedes.
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At the same time, non-tax operating expenses increased by 8.6% in that same period, which generated concern among investors regarding the pressure on margins throughout the chain of operators.
Promotional activity intensifies, but should stabilize
Competition in the premium mass segment has led to an escalation of promotional activity among operators. Sands China is one of the most cited examples: the concessionaire has publicly stated its intention to be more aggressive in this segment, which has driven higher spending on incentives and benefits for high-value customers.
CBRE maintains, however, that this dynamic is transitory. The firm anticipates that promotional activity will remain high in the short term, but will tend to stabilize throughout fiscal year 2026. In parallel, the growth of operating expenses should also moderate, given that many of the investments related to the concessions are already incorporated into the operators’ cost structures.
Why does Macao remain an attractive market in 2026?
Beyond stock market volatility, CBRE reaffirms that Macao retains its appeal as a long-term investment destination. The combination of macroeconomic stimuli in mainland China, the incomplete recovery of mass tourism, and the sustained investment of the six concessionaires configure a favorable scenario for revenue growth during the next quarters.
For investors with a medium and long-term horizon, the gap between the fall in shares and the positive outlook for business fundamentals could represent an opportunity, provided that uncertainty about margins and the sustainability of growth can be dissipated with the quarterly results published throughout the year.
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