Gaming operators in Macau face April 2026 with a tailwind. In a year where the market continues to consolidate its recovery against pre-pandemic levels, leading industry analysts project that gross gaming revenue (GGR) will grow at a rate of at least 10% year-on-year during the current month, following the solid results recorded in March.
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March 2026 exceeded expectations and sets a solid foundation
This week, the Macau Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau confirmed a 15% year-on-year increase in March 2026 GGR, which reached 22.600 million patacas ($2.800 million dollars). The result was better than anticipated by the market. According to JP Morgan, channel checks pointed to high VIP customer retention and a sustained weekly GGR increase as the month progressed.
In the first quarter of 2026 as a whole, GGR recorded a year-on-year growth of 14%. The VIP segment was the most dynamic, with an estimated 25% year-on-year increase to 18.100 million patacas, while the general market grew 11% year-on-year, reaching 47.800 million patacas.
JP Morgan projects 20.700 million patacas for April
Analysts Daniel Politzer, Samuel Nielsen, and Michael Hirsh from JP Morgan forecast GGR of 20.700 million patacas for April 2026, which is equivalent to 10% year-on-year growth and represents 88% of the levels recorded in the same month of 2019, the last reference year prior to the health restrictions that paralyzed tourism in the region.
Looking ahead to the rest of the year, JP Morgan estimates that GGR for the June quarter will grow by 7% year-on-year. However, the firm warns that more demanding comparisons in the second half of 2026, when the previous year’s records were already higher, will moderate the pace, with projected growth of just 2% for the year as a whole.
Seaport Research is more optimistic, but also anticipates a slowdown
Vitaly Umansky, an analyst at Seaport Research Partners, is somewhat more positive for the short term. His forecast points to 12% year-on-year growth in April 2026 GGR, before moderating to 8,2% in May.
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For the full year, Seaport projects 7% growth in 2026, driven by a solid first half with a 9,8% increase, followed by a 4,4% slowdown in the second half. The firm warns that this slowdown will depend on whether the market manages to sustain current demand. “We anticipate that growth will slow down unless we see a rebound in demand or an improvement in liquidity,” Seaport noted in its report.
A market that continues to regain ground compared to 2019 levels
The forecasts for April reinforce the recovery trend that Macau has maintained throughout 2025 and that is consolidating in the first months of 2026. Reaching 88% of 2019 GGR levels represents significant progress, although it also shows that the market has not yet fully recovered the ground lost during the years of COVID-19 pandemic restrictions and the subsequent period of gradual reopening.
The underlying question for the second half of 2026 is whether the momentum from the first half will be enough to offset the more difficult comparisons ahead, a scenario that both JP Morgan and Seaport already incorporate into their annual projections for the Macau market.
What’s next: the second-half test
With April data yet to be confirmed, the sector’s gaze is already pointing toward the second half of the year. If the April and May figures meet projections, Macau will have achieved several consecutive quarters of solid growth, consolidating its position as the world’s largest gaming market by revenue. However, the true test will come between July and December, when comparison bases become more demanding and it becomes clear if demand is robust enough to sustain growth without depending on favorable calendar conditions. For now, both operators and investors have reasons to remain optimistic, although with caution.
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